Valuation accuracy report
Our valuations, scored against reality. Every model is backtested walk-forward on real sales it never trained on, so you can see how close the values land before you rely on one.
Bulkers
fit on 6,561 sales · as of 9 Aug 2026
| Model | Method | MAPE | Within 20% | Tested |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLIMSOLL | Statistical | ±17.3% | 72% | 2,731 |
| HALCYON | Machine learning | ±17.5% | 70% | 2,731 |
| SEXTANT | Statistical | ±17.6% | 69% | 2,730 |
| WAYFINDER | Machine learning | ±24.2% | 60% | 2,731 |
| DRYDOCK | Fundamental | ±34.6% | 34% | 2,731 |
Tankers
fit on 3,893 sales · as of 9 Aug 2026
| Model | Method | MAPE | Within 20% | Tested |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HALCYON | Machine learning | ±21.5% | 66% | 1,305 |
| SEXTANT | Statistical | ±22.8% | 66% | 1,304 |
| PLIMSOLL | Statistical | ±31.6% | 49% | 1,305 |
| DRYDOCK | Fundamental | ±34.2% | 38% | 1,305 |
| WAYFINDER | Machine learning | ±36.6% | 51% | 1,305 |
Container ships
fit on 296 sales · as of 9 Aug 2026
| Model | Method | MAPE | Within 20% | Tested |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HALCYON | Machine learning | ±47.1% | 31% | 189 |
| SEXTANT | Statistical | ±55.4% | 25% | 189 |
| PLIMSOLL | Statistical | ±67.5% | 30% | 189 |
| WAYFINDER | Machine learning | ±77.7% | 27% | 189 |
| DRYDOCK | Fundamental | ±152.5% | 5% | 189 |
Gas carriers
fit on 126 sales · as of 9 Aug 2026
| Model | Method | MAPE | Within 20% | Tested |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAYFINDER | Machine learning | ±27.0% | 49% | 41 |
| SEXTANT | Statistical | ±27.2% | 55% | 40 |
| PLIMSOLL | Statistical | ±30.6% | 51% | 41 |
| DRYDOCK | Fundamental | ±34.8% | 51% | 41 |
| HALCYON | Machine learning | ±51.6% | 29% | 41 |
How this is measured
Walk-forward. Each model is refit on older sales and scored only on more recent sales it never trained on. No sale is ever tested against itself.
MAPE. The mean absolute percentage error between the model's value and the real price achieved. Lower is better; ±20% is the industry-relevant band.
Baseline lift. We compare against a naive size-bucketed $/dwt rule. The gap is the value the models add over a back-of-envelope estimate.
Figures recompute as new transactions settle, so accuracy tracks the current market rather than a frozen snapshot. Accuracy is a track record, not a guarantee: any single valuation carries the error range shown on its report.
Value a specific vessel
Run the full multi-model report on a named ship or an arbitrary spec.