Quant Signals
Where fuels and freight inputs sit versus their long-run relationships, and when each market last shifted regime.
Daily energy benchmarks
spot · as of Sep 1Price-risk outlook
The central line is the current price carried forward. At a 3 to 12 month horizon a monthly commodity or freight price is, statistically, a random walk, so we don't fake a direction. The shaded bands are the range the price has actually landed in over history (50% and 80% of the time). Where our model has been shown to beat that naive baseline out-of-sample, the central line bends instead of staying flat. Those series are marked ‘modelled’.
Crude oil (Dubai)
spot · as of Sept 2026
72.2to152
12-month 80% range · $/bbl
Indicative price risk, not a forecast of direction and not investment advice. The cone is the range the price has historically occupied over the same horizon; realised prices can and do land outside it.
Relative-value signals
How far each pair sits from its long-run equilibrium, and how long that gap historically takes to close.
Coal vs iron ore (dry-bulk inputs)
vs its long-run equilibrium · notable
0.86
pass-thru
0.79 to 0.93
22.7mo
persistence
11.6 to 59.7
681
months
MGO vs Brent crude
vs its long-run equilibrium · notable
1.09
pass-thru
0.97 to 1.23
3.3mo
persistence
1.6 to 10.4
93
months
VLSFO vs MGO
directionalvs its long-run equilibrium · notable
0.77
pass-thru
0.7 to 0.84
4.8mo
persistence
2.6 to 10.2
85
months
VLSFO vs HSFO (scrubber spread)
directionalvs its long-run equilibrium
1.00
pass-thru
0.96 to 1.08
2.4mo
persistence
1.4 to 3.8
80
months
VLSFO vs Brent crude
vs its long-run equilibrium
0.91
pass-thru
0.85 to 1.02
1.9mo
persistence
1.1 to 3.9
84
months
HSFO vs Brent crude
vs its long-run equilibrium
0.87
pass-thru
0.81 to 0.91
1.4mo
persistence
0.9 to 2.7
79
months
Pairs without a stable long-run relationship are marked directional and carry context only. Indicative of relative value and hedging timing, not investment advice; reversion to equilibrium is a historical tendency, not a guarantee.
Commodity backdrop
The demand-side fundamentals that move shipping: crude as bunker cost, coal and iron ore as dry-bulk demand, LNG and grains as cargo.
softs
cocoa
7806US$/tonne
as of Jun 2025
coffee-colombian
333USCent/Lb
marketing-year avg · Aug 2026
tea-india
226$/kg
marketing-year avg · Aug 2026
meteorological
precipitation
0.5mm
marketing-year avg · Sept 2024
hydrological
river-discharge
0.7m³/s
marketing-year avg · Sept 2024
Energy
Coal (Australian)
147$/mt
as of Sept 2026
Coal (South African)
98.2$/mt
as of Sept 2026
Crude oil (Brent)
117$/bbl
as of Sept 2026
Crude oil (Brent, spot)
96.0USD/bbl
as of Sept 2026
Crude oil (Dubai)
93.3$/bbl
as of Sept 2026
Crude oil (WTI)
96.9$/bbl
as of Sept 2026
Crude oil (WTI, spot)
91.5USD/bbl
as of Sept 2026
Diesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)
4.6USD/gal
as of Sept 2026
Gasoline (NY Harbor, conventional)
3.2USD/gal
as of Sept 2026
Jet-kerosene (US Gulf Coast)
4.2USD/gal
as of Sept 2026
LNG (Japan)
14.3$/mmbtu
as of Sept 2026
Natural gas (Europe)
25.4$/mmbtu
as of Sept 2026
Natural gas (Henry Hub, spot)
2.9USD/MMBtu
as of Sept 2026
Natural gas (US)
3.0$/mmbtu
as of Sept 2026
Propane (Mont Belvieu)
0.7USD/gal
as of Sept 2026
eua
132€/t CO₂e
as of Jul 2026
Metals
Iron ore (cfr spot)
97.7$/dmtu
as of Sept 2026
copper
13507$/mt
as of Jun 2026
Grains
Maize
240$/mt
as of Sept 2026
Maize (USDA MYA price)
4.1USD/bu
marketing-year avg · Jul 2025
Soybeans
524$/mt
as of Sept 2026
Soybeans (USDA MYA price)
10.2USD/bu
marketing-year avg · Jul 2025
Wheat (US HRW)
347$/mt
as of Sept 2026
Wheat (USDA MYA price)
4.8USD/bu
marketing-year avg · Jul 2025
Mostly monthly, last 24 months shown; each card is dated. Rows marked marketing-year avg are a single annual average, not a monthly print. For daily-built spot rows the newest month is a partial-month average until the month closes, so their y/y can be slightly off in-month.
Macro backdrop
The financial and inventory environment around shipping: the dollar, rates, the activity cycle, risk appetite and oil stocks.
trade
US crude oil exports
3850kbbl/d
as of Aug 2026
US crude oil imports
6715kbbl/d
as of Aug 2026
US distillate (diesel) exports
1765kbbl/d
as of Aug 2026
US LNG exports
521KMMcf
as of Jun 2026
Freight cost
Coastal & Great-Lakes freight PPI (US BLS)
260
as of Sept 2026
Deep-sea freight PPI (US BLS)
535
as of Sept 2026
Marine cargo handling PPI (US BLS)
168
as of Sept 2026
Sea & coastal freight PPI, UK (ONS SPPI H50.20)
147
as of Apr 2026
Currency
US Dollar — broad index
119
as of Aug 2026
Rates
US 10-Year Treasury yield
4.7%
as of Aug 2026
Yield curve (10y − 2y)
0.5ppt
as of Aug 2026
Activity & inflation
Global real economic activity (Kilian index)
64.2
as of Sept 2026
Non-OPEC petroleum production
78.2Mbbl/d
as of Oct 2026
OECD petroleum consumption
45.9Mbbl/d
as of Oct 2026
US CPI (all urban)
333
as of Jul 2026
US industrial production
103
as of Jul 2026
US refinery utilisation
97.2%
as of Aug 2026
World petroleum production
106Mbbl/d
as of Oct 2026
Risk
Equity volatility (VIX)
15.2
as of Aug 2026
US oil inventories
US crude oil stocks (excl SPR)
427Kkbbl
as of Aug 2026
US distillate (diesel) stocks
105Kkbbl
as of Aug 2026
US gasoline stocks
208Kkbbl
as of Aug 2026
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks
292Kkbbl
as of Aug 2026
Shown as context: tested against freight and commodity prices, none of these carries a robust long-run relationship, so we do not dress them up as a cheap/rich signal. Monthly, each card dated; inventory series are built from weekly data, so the newest month is a partial-month average.
Regime shifts
The dates each series stepped to a new level, on one axis, so you can see which shocks moved everything at once.
Bunker fuels
Chokepoint transits
Dot size is the size of the level step; the arrow is its direction. A break is a descriptive change in level, not a buy or sell signal. The densest quarter is 2022-Q1, when 5 series stepped together.
Series diagnostics
Whether a series trends and wanders (I(1)) or reverts to a level (I(0)), and how much of it is trend versus seasonal.
| Series | Integration | Trend | Seasonal | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bunker HSFO (global median) | I(1) | 99% | 12% | 1770 |
| Bunker IFO380 (global median) | I(1) | 98% | 0% | 198 |
| Bunker MGO (global median) | I(1) | 98% | 10% | 1892 |
| Bunker VLSFO (global median) | I(1) | 99% | 0% | 1813 |
| Bosporus Strait daily transits | ambiguous | 35% | 15% | 2841 |
| Cape of Good Hope daily transits | I(1) | 69% | 9% | 2841 |
| Gibraltar Strait daily transits | ambiguous | 46% | 21% | 2841 |
| Malacca Strait daily transits | I(1) | 84% | 16% | 2841 |
| Panama Canal daily transits | ambiguous | 43% | 7% | 2841 |
| Strait of Hormuz daily transits | I(1) | 85% | 12% | 2841 |
| Suez Canal daily transits | I(1) | 79% | 20% | 2841 |
Bunker series from our 140+ port coverage; commodities and chokepoint transits from open monthly data. Recomputed weekly.