Price Research

Scenario Stress Lab

Replay a shock that actually happened on today's prices, using each price's own historically-measured reaction. A stress test, not a forecast.

5 shocks are replayable here across 20 tracked prices; 11 of them registered in more than one. Coal (South African) carries the widest measured span, 104.0 points: +74.7% (Russia invades Ukraine, 2022) against -29.3% (COVID-19 demand collapse, 2020), with Crude oil (Brent, spot) close behind at 102.5. No shock in this library split the board: in each one, every price it moved went the same way.

Replay one shock on today's prices

Pick a shock; every price it measurably moved is shown with that move applied to its current spot. Bars share one axis across all shocks, so a full bar means the same thing on every card.

Russia invades Ukraine

full scale ±75%

Invasion triggers an energy and grain shock; oil and gas spike.

12 prices moved measurably when this hit in February 2022, every one of them dearer. Coal (South African) led at +75%; repeated from today's spot that move runs 96.8 to 169.1 $/mt. The 4 bunker hubs shown landed within 4.8 points of each other.

CommodityCoal (South African)
96.8169.1 $/mt
+75%
CommodityCoal (Australian)
135.2215.5 $/mt
+59%
CommodityNatural gas (Europe)
21.131.7 $/mmbtu
+50%
BunkerHouston MGO
1,3061,924 $/t
+47%
CommodityDiesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)
4.636.78 USD/gal
+47%
BunkerPort of Rotterdam MGO
1,0511,527 $/t
+45%
BunkerPort of Singapore MGO
1,2401,775 $/t
+43%
BunkerWorld Average (USDA) MGO
1,4282,035 $/t
+43%
CommodityCrude oil (Dubai)
79.7108.5 $/bbl
+36%
CommodityCrude oil (Brent, spot)
96130.1 USD/bbl
+36%
CommodityCrude oil (Brent)
90.9122.9 $/bbl
+35%
CommodityCrude oil (WTI)
82.7108 $/bbl
+31%

Which prices a shock actually moves

The lowest and highest reaction each price recorded across the shocks it registered in: what these prices did around past dates, not what they would do. Only prices measured in at least two shocks appear: one observation is not a range.

Coal (South African) and Diesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2) registered in 3 of the 5 shocks here, more than any other price, and the closest thing in this library to a broadly shock-exposed cost.
Diesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2) is the closest to a mirror image: +46.5% at its dearest against -46.4% at its cheapest, 0.2 points apart in opposite directions.
Maize and Wheat (US HRW) moved cheaper in every shock they registered in, on 8.5 and 8.1 points of range against 104.0 at the top of this list. In what is measured here they have only been seen moving one way.

Series	Shocks	Cheapest	Measured range	Dearest	Span
Coal (South African)	3	-29.3%		+74.7%	104.0
Crude oil (Brent, spot)	2	-67.0%		+35.5%	102.5
Crude oil (WTI)	2	-67.3%		+30.6%	97.9
Crude oil (Dubai)	2	-57.3%		+36.1%	93.3
Diesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)	3	-46.4%		+46.5%	92.9
Crude oil (Brent)	2	-57.6%		+35.2%	92.8
World Average (USDA) MGO	2	-44.5%		+42.5%	87.0
Natural gas (Europe)	2	-27.1%		+50.0%	77.2
Coal (Australian)	2	+41.0%		+59.4%	18.4
Maize	2	-22.2%		-13.7%	8.5
Wheat (US HRW)	2	-16.7%		-8.6%	8.1
			-75%0+75%

A further 9 prices registered in only one shock, so they carry no cross-shock range and are not listed here: an absence of measurement, not a finding of stability. 1 benchmark is listed under two names each. Both variants are kept rather than merged (which quote is the real one is a judgement, not a formatting fix), so their near-identical spans read as corroboration rather than as separate exposures.

A stress test, not a forecast. Each figure is the price's own historically-observed reaction when this class of shock last occurred (the analog year is shown), applied illustratively to the current spot. It is emphatically not a prediction that the shock will recur, and realised moves would differ. Concurrent market forces are baked into the historical reaction, so these are co-movements around a date, not proof of causation. Not investment advice.

Series

Shocks

Cheapest

Measured range

Dearest

Span

Coal (South African)

-29.3%

+74.7%

104.0

Crude oil (Brent, spot)

-67.0%

+35.5%

102.5

Crude oil (WTI)

-67.3%

+30.6%

97.9

Crude oil (Dubai)

-57.3%

+36.1%

93.3

Diesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)

-46.4%

+46.5%

92.9

Crude oil (Brent)

-57.6%

+35.2%

92.8

World Average (USDA) MGO

-44.5%

+42.5%

87.0

Natural gas (Europe)

-27.1%

+50.0%

77.2

Coal (Australian)

+41.0%

+59.4%

18.4

Maize

-22.2%

-13.7%

8.5

Wheat (US HRW)

-16.7%

-8.6%

8.1

-75%0+75%