Scenario Stress Lab
Replay a major market shock on today’s prices. Pick an event that actually happened — a supply shock, a demand collapse, a grain-corridor break — and see where a comparable shock would put each commodity and bunker price if it recurred from current levels, using that price’s own historically-measured reaction. A stress test, not a forecast.
Black Sea grain deal collapses
Russia exits the grain deal; Black Sea shipping risk returns.
When this hit in 2023 it pulled every tracked price down. Below, each move is applied to today's spot — where a comparable shock would put the price if it recurred from here.
- CommodityMaize197.1153.3 $/mt-22%
- CommodityWheat (US HRW)286261.4 $/mt-9%
A stress test, not a forecast. Each figure is the price's own historically-observed reaction when this class of shock last occurred (the analog year is shown), applied illustratively to the current spot — it is emphatically not a prediction that the shock will recur, and realised moves would differ. Concurrent market forces are baked into the historical reaction. Not investment advice.