A live 0-100 index of the physical supply-demand balance behind each segment's rates. Not a price forecast. Direct rate levels don't beat random walk over any horizon we have. This is the pressure that creates them: how much open tonnage there is, how much cargo it's chasing, and how hard owners can push.
Where we can prove out-of-sample skill on top, we attach a probability the rate moves >15% in two weeks. Where we can't yet, we say so. The model waits for history, not opinion.
Overlay waiting for evidence: too few observed spikes (0). We don't publish a forecast until its backtest beats naive.
Overlay waiting for evidence: no target series. We don't publish a forecast until its backtest beats naive.
Overlay waiting for evidence: no target series. We don't publish a forecast until its backtest beats naive.
Supply tension combines the share of laden tonnage, the share NOT idle, the share NOT ballasting home, and the speed index, each weight documented in the method meta on every observation. High supply tension means owners have pricing power.
Demand pull is the rolling z-score of segment ton-miles (transport work performed). Positive z amplifies the composite, a pull that stretches an already-tight supply.
The index is the rolling percentile rank of that composite over the recent history, mapped to 0-100. Regime bands: ≥70 tight, 30-70 balanced, ≤30 slack.
The rate-spike overlay is a logistic model of the probability the TC-daily moves >15% within two weeks, features drawn from tightness and its 7-day delta. It publishes ONLY when a rolling-origin backtest clears AUROC 0.65 with at least five observed spikes. Otherwise the field stays null and the gate reason is shown. We don't publish forecasts that fail their backtest.
Refreshed twice daily. Values, weights and gate outcomes carried verbatim from the intel job; nothing is hand-tuned per segment.
