Weeks ahead of customs

Seaborne Trade Nowcast

Country × segment monthly import intensity, straight from arriving deadweight in the AIS lake. Percentile-of-self so a hub isn't always 'booming', and the same country running 30% above its own baseline reads as it should.

0 booming · demand pull·32 cooling · softening demand

flows · ·

Country × segment

Month of 2026-08-01

Total arrivals

5,043

Laden and ballast, all tracked ports

Booming

Above baseline, elevated pull

Cooling

Below baseline, softening

Total arriving DWT (month, all tracked flows)

209.2M

Coverage

24 countries · 4 segments

Top 10 movers

Countries × segments with the biggest month-on-month arriving-DWT jump. Rising demand for those trade lanes.

Regime split

How this month divides.

Bottom 10 movers

Countries × segments where arriving DWT is falling MoM most sharply: softening import demand.

Steady

Around baseline.

Country	Segment	Arrivals	Total DWT	MoM	Trend (3m)	Action
Netherlands	TANKER	141	4.6M	-81.2%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
Norway	BULKER	127	6.5M	-84.7%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
Belgium	CONTAINER	103	4.8M	-86.6%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
United Kingdom	CONTAINER	102	3.9M	-87.3%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
Brazil	BULKER	102	4.7M	-75.0%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
South Africa	BULKER	100	7.5M	-79.6%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
Poland	CONTAINER	85	1.1M	-84.1%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
Algeria	BULKER	60	2.4M	-85.8%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
Ireland	CONTAINER	41	646.9k	-85.2%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
Australia	CONTAINER	38	2.2M	-89.4%	+0.0%	Steady around baseline
Canada	TANKER	34	1.0M	-89.4%	+181.6%	Steady around baseline

Cooling

Below baseline: softening demand.

Country	Segment	Arrivals	Total DWT	MoM	Trend (3m)	Action
USA	BULKER	491	27.3M	-89.2%	-28.9%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Greece	TANKER	413	2.6M	-88.5%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Canada	BULKER	395	21.8M	-82.7%	-7.9%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
USA	CONTAINER	242	11.0M	-90.5%	+12.2%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
United Kingdom	BULKER	192	9.0M	-80.8%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Australia	BULKER	189	12.8M	-88.7%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Spain	CONTAINER	188	5.6M	-85.4%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Germany	CONTAINER	151	3.5M	-87.1%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Italy	TANKER	139	2.8M	-83.4%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Netherlands	CONTAINER	137	3.7M	-79.7%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Germany	BULKER	125	7.4M	-74.1%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Indonesia	CONTAINER	122	1.8M	-88.6%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Netherlands	BULKER	115	10.7M	-88.0%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Belgium	BULKER	115	5.0M	-88.1%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Singapore	CONTAINER	111	4.8M	-82.1%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Italy	BULKER	111	6.3M	-73.6%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Spain	BULKER	100	6.2M	-85.2%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
South Korea	BULKER	86	4.3M	-85.4%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Spain	TANKER	69	778.7k	-87.0%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Italy	CONTAINER	68	2.0M	-91.0%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Taiwan	CONTAINER	64	959.1k	-82.6%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Egypt	BULKER	63	3.5M	-71.0%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Greece	BULKER	59	2.5M	-88.7%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
France	BULKER	58	3.8M	-86.3%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
New Zealand	BULKER	57	2.2M	-82.9%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Greece	CONTAINER	55	1.3M	-88.4%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Singapore	BULKER	50	2.4M	-91.3%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Portugal	CONTAINER	38	492.9k	-87.8%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Norway	CONTAINER	38	304.4k	-89.3%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating
Poland	BULKER	30	1.6M	-93.7%	+0.0%	Softening — below baseline, decelerating

How the nowcast reads

AIS is complete-observation. When customs authorities publish import statistics 4-8 weeks after the month, we already have the arrivals. This board reads country × segment monthly arriving deadweight as an import-intensity proxy: a relative index, because a downsampled trail can't recover absolute cargo tonnage per hull, but consistent under-counting keeps the trend honest.

Regime = percentile of the country's own last-24m distribution: booming ≥85 · building 60-85 · steady 30-60 · cooling <30. The current UTC month is deliberately dropped from the published head. Partial data would tilt every country to "cooling" against full-month baselines.

YoY reads engage as history depth passes 12 months per pair. Refreshed each daily run.

Country

Segment

Arrivals

Total DWT

MoM

Trend (3m)

Action

Netherlands

TANKER

141

4.6M

-81.2%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

Norway

BULKER

127

6.5M

-84.7%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

Belgium

CONTAINER

103

4.8M

-86.6%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

United Kingdom

CONTAINER

102

3.9M

-87.3%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

Brazil

BULKER

102

4.7M

-75.0%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

South Africa

BULKER

100

7.5M

-79.6%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

Poland

CONTAINER

1.1M

-84.1%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

Algeria

BULKER

2.4M

-85.8%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

Ireland

CONTAINER

646.9k

-85.2%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

Australia

CONTAINER

2.2M

-89.4%

+0.0%

Steady around baseline

Canada

TANKER

1.0M

-89.4%

+181.6%

Steady around baseline

Country

Segment

Arrivals

Total DWT

MoM

Trend (3m)

Action

USA

BULKER

491

27.3M

-89.2%

-28.9%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Greece

TANKER

413

2.6M

-88.5%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Canada

BULKER

395

21.8M

-82.7%

-7.9%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

USA

CONTAINER

242

11.0M

-90.5%

+12.2%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

United Kingdom

BULKER

192

9.0M

-80.8%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Australia

BULKER

189

12.8M

-88.7%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Spain

CONTAINER

188

5.6M

-85.4%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Germany

CONTAINER

151

3.5M

-87.1%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Italy

TANKER

139

2.8M

-83.4%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Netherlands

CONTAINER

137

3.7M

-79.7%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Germany

BULKER

125

7.4M

-74.1%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Indonesia

CONTAINER

122

1.8M

-88.6%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Netherlands

BULKER

115

10.7M

-88.0%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Belgium

BULKER

115

5.0M

-88.1%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Singapore

CONTAINER

111

4.8M

-82.1%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Italy

BULKER

111

6.3M

-73.6%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Spain

BULKER

100

6.2M

-85.2%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

South Korea

BULKER

4.3M

-85.4%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Spain

TANKER

778.7k

-87.0%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Italy

CONTAINER

2.0M

-91.0%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Taiwan

CONTAINER

959.1k

-82.6%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Egypt

BULKER

3.5M

-71.0%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Greece

BULKER

2.5M

-88.7%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

France

BULKER

3.8M

-86.3%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

New Zealand

BULKER

2.2M

-82.9%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Greece

CONTAINER

1.3M

-88.4%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Singapore

BULKER

2.4M

-91.3%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Portugal

CONTAINER

492.9k

-87.8%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Norway

CONTAINER

304.4k

-89.3%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

Poland

BULKER

1.6M

-93.7%

+0.0%

Softening — below baseline, decelerating

How the nowcast reads

YoY reads engage as history depth passes 12 months per pair. Refreshed each daily run.