Price Research

How Shipping Prices Behave

What each market shock did to prices, the seasonal rhythms in each series, and an honest read on how far ahead prices are foreseeable. The per-series canvases live on the Bunkers, Commodities and Freight desks.

How prices reacted to major shocks

The move from the month before each shock to the month after, for the prices it plausibly touched. Colour is read from the buyer's side: red is a price rise, green a fall.

geopolitics2023-07-17

Black Sea grain deal collapses

Russia exits the grain deal; Black Sea shipping risk returns.

CommodityMaize
-22%
CommodityWheat (US HRW)
-9%

geopolitics2022-07-22

Black Sea Grain Initiative

Deal reopens Ukrainian grain corridors, easing agri prices.

CommodityWheat (US HRW)
-17%
CommodityMaize
-14%
CommoditySoybeans
-9%

geopolitics2022-02-24

Russia invades Ukraine

Invasion triggers an energy and grain shock; oil and gas spike.

CommodityCoal (South African)
+75%
CommodityCoal (Australian)
+59%
CommodityNatural gas (Europe)
+50%
BunkerHouston MGO
+47%
CommodityDiesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)
+47%
BunkerPort of Rotterdam MGO
+45%
BunkerPort of Singapore MGO
+43%
CommodityCrude oil (Dubai)
+36%

macro2021-05-01

China commodity restocking

Post-COVID Chinese demand drives iron ore and coal to records.

CommodityCoal (Australian)
+41%
CommodityCoal (South African)
+27%
CommodityIron ore (cfr spot)
+19%
CommodityDiesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)
+12%

macro2020-03-11

COVID-19 demand collapse

WHO declares a pandemic; global oil and freight demand collapses.

CommodityCrude oil (WTI)
-67%
CommodityCrude oil (WTI, spot)
-67%
CommodityCrude oil (Brent, spot)
-67%
CommodityGasoline (NY Harbor, conventional)
-62%
CommodityCrude oil (Brent)
-58%
CommodityCrude oil (Dubai)
-57%
BunkerWorld Average (USDA) VLSFO
-53%
CommodityDiesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)
-46%

The calendar pattern in each price

Bars above the line are months that usually run hot against the de-seasonalised trend. Only series with a genuine calendar signal appear.

Bunker

Port of Rotterdam HSFO

28% seasonal

Peak Apr · Trough Dec+19% yr

Bunker

Port of Singapore HSFO

24% seasonal

Peak Apr · Trough Dec+34% yr

Bunker

Port of Los Angeles HSFO

23% seasonal

Peak Jun · Trough Dec+5% yr

Bunker

Port of Santos MGO

22% seasonal

Peak Apr · Trough Jan+29% yr

Bunker

Fujairah HSFO

19% seasonal

Peak Apr · Trough Jan+38% yr

Bunker

Port of Los Angeles VLSFO

18% seasonal

Peak Jun · Trough Dec+10% yr

Bunker

World Average (USDA) MGO

17% seasonal

Peak Apr · Trough Jun+64% yr

Bunker

World Average (USDA) IFO380

13% seasonal

Peak Apr · Trough Dec+33% yr

Bunker

World Average (USDA) VLSFO

12% seasonal

Peak Mar · Trough Jun+42% yr

Where a forecast actually earns its place

A 3-month projection appears only where it beats a random walk out-of-sample. Most prices do not, and we say so rather than guess.

Series	3-mo projection	80% range	Backtest skill
BunkerPort of Los Angeles VLSFO	1,012	921.5 to 1,106	MASE 0.64
BunkerPort of Rotterdam VLSFO	667.7	581.1 to 760.3	MASE 0.76
BunkerPort of Los Angeles MGO	1,467	1,301 to 1,644	MASE 0.80
BunkerFujairah MGO	1,502	1,323 to 1,693	MASE 0.82
BunkerHouston MGO	1,239	976.3 to 1,535	MASE 0.87
BunkerPort of Rotterdam HSFO	584.7	482.1 to 697.4	MASE 0.87
BunkerFujairah VLSFO	799.3	574.1 to 1,064	MASE 0.88
BunkerPort of Santos VLSFO	760.9	587.8 to 957.2	MASE 0.90
BunkerPort of Rotterdam MGO	1,063	812.5 to 1,348	MASE 0.90
BunkerPort of Singapore HSFO	599.2	472 to 742.1	MASE 0.91
BunkerNew York-New Jersey VLSFO	768	656.1 to 888.9	MASE 0.91
CommodityGasoline (NY Harbor, conventional)	3.02	2.4 to 3.72	MASE 0.91
BunkerPort of Los Angeles HSFO	756.5	660.1 to 859.7	MASE 0.94
CommodityCrude oil (Dubai)	78.3	61.5 to 97.1	MASE 0.94
CommodityWheat (US HRW)	344.9	316 to 375.1	MASE 0.95
BunkerNew York-New Jersey MGO	1,407	1,108 to 1,744	MASE 0.95
BunkerPort of Singapore VLSFO	802.9	655.8 to 965.5	MASE 0.95
BunkerHouston HSFO	467.6	364 to 584.7	MASE 0.96
CommodityNatural gas (Henry Hub, spot)	3.3	1.14 to 6.81	MASE 0.96
CommodityCrude oil (WTI, spot)	87.7	68.3 to 109.7	MASE 0.96
CommodityNatural gas (Europe)	20.9	16.1 to 26.3	MASE 0.96
CommodityNatural gas (US)	2.88	0.89 to 6.26	MASE 0.96
CommodityCrude oil (Brent)	89.4	64.6 to 118.5	MASE 0.97
BunkerPort of Singapore MGO	1,220	988.3 to 1,477	MASE 0.97
CommodityCrude oil (Brent, spot)	94.3	70.4 to 122	MASE 0.97
BunkerPort of Hong Kong VLSFO	863.2	699.6 to 1,045	MASE 0.98
CommodityJet-kerosene (US Gulf Coast)	4.16	3.11 to 5.37	MASE 0.98
BunkerPort of Hong Kong MGO	1,226	968.1 to 1,515	MASE 0.98
CommodityCrude oil (WTI)	80	61.1 to 101.5	MASE 0.98

The range is the modelled 80% interval, published as computed. It is symmetric in price levels, so on a low-priced volatile series its lower arm can run below zero; those rows are marked no floor rather than clipped, because a band that has run past zero is telling you it cannot bound that series, not that the price could reach nothing.

A further 16 series show no directional edge over a random walk at this horizon. For those we deliberately publish no point forecast, only the history and its uncertainty cone.

Event reaction is the realized price change from the month before an event to the month after, for the series a shock could plausibly touch; concurrent market forces are included, so it is co-movement around the date, not proof of causation. Seasonality is a descriptive decomposition of past monthly history, not a forecast. The nowcast is gated on an out-of-sample backtest and shown only where it beats a naive baseline. Figures are analytical estimates for context, not investment advice. Market econometrics →

Series

3-mo projection

80% range

Backtest skill

BunkerPort of Los Angeles VLSFO

1,012

921.5 to 1,106

MASE 0.64

BunkerPort of Rotterdam VLSFO

667.7

581.1 to 760.3

MASE 0.76

BunkerPort of Los Angeles MGO

1,467

1,301 to 1,644

MASE 0.80

BunkerFujairah MGO

1,502

1,323 to 1,693

MASE 0.82

BunkerHouston MGO

1,239

976.3 to 1,535

MASE 0.87

BunkerPort of Rotterdam HSFO

584.7

482.1 to 697.4

MASE 0.87

BunkerFujairah VLSFO

799.3

574.1 to 1,064

MASE 0.88

BunkerPort of Santos VLSFO

760.9

587.8 to 957.2

MASE 0.90

BunkerPort of Rotterdam MGO

1,063

812.5 to 1,348

MASE 0.90

BunkerPort of Singapore HSFO

599.2

472 to 742.1

MASE 0.91

BunkerNew York-New Jersey VLSFO

768

656.1 to 888.9

MASE 0.91

CommodityGasoline (NY Harbor, conventional)

3.02

2.4 to 3.72

MASE 0.91

BunkerPort of Los Angeles HSFO

756.5

660.1 to 859.7

MASE 0.94

CommodityCrude oil (Dubai)

78.3

61.5 to 97.1

MASE 0.94

CommodityWheat (US HRW)

344.9

316 to 375.1

MASE 0.95

BunkerNew York-New Jersey MGO

1,407

1,108 to 1,744

MASE 0.95

BunkerPort of Singapore VLSFO

802.9

655.8 to 965.5

MASE 0.95

BunkerHouston HSFO

467.6

364 to 584.7

MASE 0.96

CommodityNatural gas (Henry Hub, spot)

3.3

1.14 to 6.81

MASE 0.96

CommodityCrude oil (WTI, spot)

87.7

68.3 to 109.7

MASE 0.96

CommodityNatural gas (Europe)

20.9

16.1 to 26.3

MASE 0.96

CommodityNatural gas (US)

2.88

0.89 to 6.26

MASE 0.96

CommodityCrude oil (Brent)

89.4

64.6 to 118.5

MASE 0.97

BunkerPort of Singapore MGO

1,220

988.3 to 1,477

MASE 0.97

CommodityCrude oil (Brent, spot)

94.3

70.4 to 122

MASE 0.97

BunkerPort of Hong Kong VLSFO

863.2

699.6 to 1,045

MASE 0.98

CommodityJet-kerosene (US Gulf Coast)

4.16

3.11 to 5.37

MASE 0.98

BunkerPort of Hong Kong MGO

1,226

968.1 to 1,515

MASE 0.98

CommodityCrude oil (WTI)

61.1 to 101.5

MASE 0.98