Price Research

How Shipping Prices Behave

What each market shock did to prices, the seasonal rhythms in each series, and an honest read on how far ahead prices are foreseeable. The per-series canvases live on the Bunkers, Commodities and Freight desks.

How prices reacted to major shocks

The move from the month before each shock to the month after, for the prices it plausibly touched. Colour is read from the buyer's side: red is a price rise, green a fall.

geopolitics2023-07-17

Black Sea grain deal collapses

Russia exits the grain deal; Black Sea shipping risk returns.

CommodityMaize
-22%
CommodityWheat (US HRW)
-9%

geopolitics2022-07-22

Black Sea Grain Initiative

Deal reopens Ukrainian grain corridors, easing agri prices.

CommodityWheat (US HRW)
-17%
CommodityMaize
-14%
CommoditySoybeans
-9%

geopolitics2022-02-24

Russia invades Ukraine

Invasion triggers an energy and grain shock; oil and gas spike.

CommodityCoal (South African)
+75%
CommodityCoal (Australian)
+59%
CommodityNatural gas (Europe)
+50%
BunkerHouston MGO
+47%
CommodityDiesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)
+47%
BunkerPort of Rotterdam MGO
+45%
BunkerPort of Singapore MGO
+43%
CommodityCrude oil (Dubai)
+36%

macro2021-05-01

China commodity restocking

Post-COVID Chinese demand drives iron ore and coal to records.

CommodityCoal (Australian)
+41%
CommodityCoal (South African)
+27%
CommodityIron ore (cfr spot)
+19%
CommodityDiesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)
+12%

macro2020-03-11

COVID-19 demand collapse

WHO declares a pandemic; global oil and freight demand collapses.

CommodityCrude oil (WTI)
-67%
CommodityCrude oil (WTI, spot)
-67%
CommodityCrude oil (Brent, spot)
-67%
CommodityGasoline (NY Harbor, conventional)
-62%
CommodityCrude oil (Brent)
-58%
CommodityCrude oil (Dubai)
-57%
BunkerWorld Average (USDA) VLSFO
-53%
CommodityDiesel/heating oil (NY Harbor No.2)
-46%

The calendar pattern in each price

Bars above the line are months that usually run hot against the de-seasonalised trend. Only series with a genuine calendar signal appear.

Bunker

Port of Rotterdam HSFO

28% seasonal

Peak Apr · Trough Dec+19% yr

Bunker

Port of Santos MGO

23% seasonal

Peak Apr · Trough Jul+46% yr

Bunker

Port of Los Angeles HSFO

23% seasonal

Peak Jun · Trough Dec+5% yr

Bunker

Port of Los Angeles VLSFO

18% seasonal

Peak Jun · Trough Dec+10% yr

Bunker

Port of Singapore HSFO

17% seasonal

Peak Oct · Trough Dec+35% yr

Bunker

World Average (USDA) IFO380

17% seasonal

Peak Apr · Trough Jan+39% yr

Where a forecast actually earns its place

A 3-month projection appears only where it beats a random walk out-of-sample. Most prices do not, and we say so rather than guess.

Series	3-mo projection	80% range	Backtest skill
BunkerPort of Los Angeles VLSFO	1,012	921.5 to 1,106	MASE 0.64
BunkerPort of Rotterdam VLSFO	667.7	581.1 to 760.3	MASE 0.76
BunkerFujairah MGO	1,844	1,622 to 2,079	MASE 0.78
BunkerPort of Los Angeles MGO	1,467	1,301 to 1,644	MASE 0.80
BunkerPort of Rotterdam HSFO	584.7	482.1 to 697.4	MASE 0.87
BunkerHouston MGO	1,364	1,082 to 1,680	MASE 0.90
BunkerPort of Rotterdam MGO	1,063	812.5 to 1,348	MASE 0.90
CommodityGasoline (NY Harbor, conventional)	3.02	2.4 to 3.72	MASE 0.91
CommodityWheat (US HRW)	358.7	329.2 to 389.4	MASE 0.92
BunkerFujairah VLSFO	953.5	710.6 to 1,234	MASE 0.93
BunkerPort of Santos VLSFO	814.1	637.3 to 1,013	MASE 0.93
BunkerPort of Los Angeles HSFO	756.5	660.1 to 859.7	MASE 0.94
BunkerHouston HSFO	536.6	425.1 to 661.7	MASE 0.95
CommodityCrude oil (Dubai)	90.8	72.2 to 111.6	MASE 0.95
CommodityCrude oil (WTI, spot)	87.7	68.3 to 109.7	MASE 0.96
CommodityNatural gas (Henry Hub, spot)	3.3	1.14 to 6.81	MASE 0.96
BunkerPort of Singapore MGO	1,265	1,020 to 1,537	MASE 0.96
BunkerPort of Singapore HSFO	814.2	652.7 to 994.3	MASE 0.96
CommodityNatural gas (US)	3.21	1.12 to 6.6	MASE 0.96
BunkerNew York-New Jersey MGO	1,509	1,193 to 1,862	MASE 0.97
CommodityNatural gas (Europe)	25.3	19.9 to 31.4	MASE 0.97
BunkerNew York-New Jersey VLSFO	823.7	700.3 to 957.5	MASE 0.97
BunkerPort of Singapore VLSFO	933.6	780.8 to 1,100	MASE 0.97
CommodityCrude oil (Brent, spot)	94.3	70.4 to 122	MASE 0.97
CommodityCrude oil (Brent)	114.2	85.1 to 147.7	MASE 0.98
CommodityJet-kerosene (US Gulf Coast)	4.16	3.11 to 5.37	MASE 0.98
BunkerPort of Hong Kong MGO	1,300	1,029 to 1,603	MASE 0.99
BunkerPort of Hong Kong VLSFO	992.9	822.6 to 1,180	MASE 0.99
CommodityCrude oil (WTI)	101.6	80.7 to 125.1	MASE 0.99

The range is the modelled 80% interval, published as computed. It is symmetric in price levels, so on a low-priced volatile series its lower arm can run below zero; those rows are marked no floor rather than clipped, because a band that has run past zero is telling you it cannot bound that series, not that the price could reach nothing.

A further 16 series show no directional edge over a random walk at this horizon. For those we deliberately publish no point forecast, only the history and its uncertainty cone.

Event reaction is the realized price change from the month before an event to the month after, for the series a shock could plausibly touch; concurrent market forces are included, so it is co-movement around the date, not proof of causation. Seasonality is a descriptive decomposition of past monthly history, not a forecast. The nowcast is gated on an out-of-sample backtest and shown only where it beats a naive baseline. Figures are analytical estimates for context, not investment advice. Market econometrics →

Series

3-mo projection

80% range

Backtest skill

BunkerPort of Los Angeles VLSFO

1,012

921.5 to 1,106

MASE 0.64

BunkerPort of Rotterdam VLSFO

667.7

581.1 to 760.3

MASE 0.76

BunkerFujairah MGO

1,844

1,622 to 2,079

MASE 0.78

BunkerPort of Los Angeles MGO

1,467

1,301 to 1,644

MASE 0.80

BunkerPort of Rotterdam HSFO

584.7

482.1 to 697.4

MASE 0.87

BunkerHouston MGO

1,364

1,082 to 1,680

MASE 0.90

BunkerPort of Rotterdam MGO

1,063

812.5 to 1,348

MASE 0.90

CommodityGasoline (NY Harbor, conventional)

3.02

2.4 to 3.72

MASE 0.91

CommodityWheat (US HRW)

358.7

329.2 to 389.4

MASE 0.92

BunkerFujairah VLSFO

953.5

710.6 to 1,234

MASE 0.93

BunkerPort of Santos VLSFO

814.1

637.3 to 1,013

MASE 0.93

BunkerPort of Los Angeles HSFO

756.5

660.1 to 859.7

MASE 0.94

BunkerHouston HSFO

536.6

425.1 to 661.7

MASE 0.95

CommodityCrude oil (Dubai)

90.8

72.2 to 111.6

MASE 0.95

CommodityCrude oil (WTI, spot)

87.7

68.3 to 109.7

MASE 0.96

CommodityNatural gas (Henry Hub, spot)

3.3

1.14 to 6.81

MASE 0.96

BunkerPort of Singapore MGO

1,265

1,020 to 1,537

MASE 0.96

BunkerPort of Singapore HSFO

814.2

652.7 to 994.3

MASE 0.96

CommodityNatural gas (US)

3.21

1.12 to 6.6

MASE 0.96

BunkerNew York-New Jersey MGO

1,509

1,193 to 1,862

MASE 0.97

CommodityNatural gas (Europe)

25.3

19.9 to 31.4

MASE 0.97

BunkerNew York-New Jersey VLSFO

823.7

700.3 to 957.5

MASE 0.97

BunkerPort of Singapore VLSFO

933.6

780.8 to 1,100

MASE 0.97

CommodityCrude oil (Brent, spot)

94.3

70.4 to 122

MASE 0.97

CommodityCrude oil (Brent)

114.2

85.1 to 147.7

MASE 0.98

CommodityJet-kerosene (US Gulf Coast)

4.16

3.11 to 5.37

MASE 0.98

BunkerPort of Hong Kong MGO

1,300

1,029 to 1,603

MASE 0.99

BunkerPort of Hong Kong VLSFO

992.9

822.6 to 1,180

MASE 0.99

CommodityCrude oil (WTI)

101.6

80.7 to 125.1

MASE 0.99