Commodity Prices
The prices that drive seaborne demand — crude, coal, gas, iron ore, grains and refined products — each as a decision canvas: full history and forward probability cone, the market shocks that moved it, where it sits in its cycle, and its seasonal timing. Pick a commodity.
Crude oil (WTI)
- Russia invades Ukraine+31%
- COVID-19 demand collapse-67%
The central line is the current price carried forward; at a 3-12 month horizon a monthly price is close to a random walk, so it stays flat unless a model has beaten that naive baseline out-of-sample (then it is marked a modelled path). Shaded bands are the range the price has historically occupied over the same horizon - realised prices can land outside it. Seasonal, trend and shock figures are descriptive reads of past history, not a forecast, and none of this is investment advice.