Bunker Workbench
One fuel at one hub: price history with the shocks that moved it, where it sits in its range, and the live scrubber economics.
World Average (USDA) · VLSFO
VLSFO at World Average (USDA) sits in the upper half of its range, the 73rd percentile of its trailing year, and still climbing. It last traded at $840/t, with 30-day volatility near 1.0%.
Both grades sit high in their trailing-year range, and all still climbing.
VLSFO here typically runs dearest in March (+8%) and cheapest in June (-3%) a spring-peaking pattern.
- Russia invades Ukraine+38%
- COVID-19 demand collapse-53%
Deep dated history is available for the major bunkering hubs shown above; current spot prices for the wider port network are on the price board. The forward cone is the current price carried flat with the range it has historically occupied over the same horizon. Bunker prices are close to a random walk, so the central line does not bend unless a model beat that naive baseline out-of-sample. Price position, volatility, seasonal and shock figures are descriptive reads of past history; none of this is investment advice. The Hi5 spread (VLSFO minus HSFO) is the fuel-cost edge a scrubber captures; the payback is indicative for a reference ship.